CJ's Dan Staples: Incrementality Is Redefining Affiliate Value

Affiliate marketing cannot be measured as one homogeneous channel, and CJ's Vice President of Client Development, Dan Staples, says the industry's last-click habits are actively obscuring the channel's contribution to conversions, average order value (AOV) and new-customer acquisition.

Speaking to Hello Partner around the PI LIVE conference, Staples addressed incrementality — a term he concedes is confusing and often misused within marketing, marketing technology and affiliate itself.

"It can mean so many different things to different people within marketing, within marketing technology and also within affiliate," Staples said.

What does incrementality actually mean for publishers?

From an affiliate standpoint, Staples defined incrementality as adding value outside the customer journey that was already happening — whether by driving more new customers or by lifting lifetime value, conversion rates and average order value. The definition matters for rev-share and CPA publishers alike, because proof of incremental lift is what justifies commission rates at renewal negotiations.

The concept is not straightforward. "There can often be some conflict between sort of causality and correlation, and that goes into the conversation related to attribution," Staples said.

At PI LIVE, debate centred on how the channel is measured and on its continued reliance on last-click attribution — a model Staples said creates friction with senior marketers.

"They're very familiar [with] looking at measurement through the lens of MMMs, which is typically impression-based, typically works across multiple media channels, and affiliate can't be treated as one homogeneous channel," he said.

How is CJ testing for lift?

Staples said the network has built a suite of incrementality solutions that go beyond last-click reporting:

• Holdout group analysis to isolate affiliate-caused conversions
• Cashback elasticity testing to gauge how incentive-driven demand responds to rate changes
• Commission-rate optimisation across different deal structures
• Journey analysis identifying when and where an affiliate touchpoint occurs, and whether that influence produced a better outcome

"We can report back to advertisers to say if affiliate is part of this customer journey, we're able to deliver better conversions, better AOVs and an uplift on perhaps new customer acquisition," Staples said. CJ did not publish sample sizes or specific uplift figures alongside the claims, which remain vendor assertions rather than independently measured results.

In parallel, CJ is working with MMM providers so that affiliate contributions are accurately represented in brand-side media mix models — representation Staples said has historically been inadequate.

Where does measurement go from here?

Staples acknowledged the industry has evolved but said tracking gaps still undermine attribution, which in turn weakens the measurement data advertisers use to allocate budget.

"When there are significant gaps in tracking and attribution, that means that there are gaps in measurement and that means that the data that exists within that measurement infrastructure isn't as robust as it could be or doesn't at least provide the biggest insight," he said.

The priority now, according to Staples: "Where we need to get to as an industry is ensuring that we're continuing to push the integrations that we have with advertisers and ensuring that they are best-in-class."

Better integrations, he argued, will elevate and substantiate affiliate's value, reward publishers fairly, and give CMOs and budget holders the evidence they need.

The full interview, including Staples' views on AI visibility, is available via Hello Partner.